China is flexing its economic muscle nowadays, a process the country itself terms a peaceful rise. One wonders what will happen when China will have ‘risen’: to what degree will China flex its political and military muscle? Will it want to dominate the region – or the world? This map basically outlines two scenarios: China as a regional power, and China as a world power.
The ‘regional’ map shows China’s sphere of influence extending over Mongolia, North Korea, Taiwan, the Indochinese states of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, but also Thailand, Burma/Myanmar and the continental part of Malaysia. A remarkable addition in the west is Pakistan, giving China almost immediate access to the Persian Gulf.
The ‘global’ map sees China’s influence extended beyond the countries just mentioned, to most of the former Soviet Central Asian ‘stans’ (except Turkmenistan), part of Afghanistan, the whole of Indonesia, the rest of Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and significant parts of the Russian Far East.
In both scenarios, friction remains possible with two other regional powers remaining independent, India and Japan.
What’s the source of this silly map, which doesn’t even mark the once-independent state of Tibet as occupied territory? Is it pro-Chinese propaganda or anti-Chinese propaganda? It would be more useful to look at a map of the members of the Shanghai Organisation, which is the most likely vehicle for future Chinese expansion.
Comment by anony.mouse — June 3, 2007 @ 11:01 pm
What’s the reason for the split of Afghanistan in the second map?
Comment by Peter — June 4, 2007 @ 3:31 am
I’m not so sure that the Catholic Philippines and Muslim Indonesians would cede power to the (officially) atheist Chinese easily or quickly.
Comment by The Panday — June 4, 2007 @ 5:48 am
Economically, Japan shouldn’t be seen as independent. Everything in Japan is made in China now.
(I don’t see a second map.)
Comment by rek — June 4, 2007 @ 9:50 am
I’m sure Japan would fall at least partially under the influence of China. It has happened before…
But I can’t really understand why the maker of that map would include Pakistan as part of a “Regionally Dominant Greater China.” Unless I’ve missed something, contemporary China and Pakistan don’t have much in common.
Comment by Banana-kun — June 4, 2007 @ 10:02 am
Pakistan falling under China’s direct sphere of influence is tangled up in the India-Pakistan semi-permanent war of the last 60 years over Kashmir. While India sought Russian help and technology, following the support given by the Soviets to the independence movement, Pakistan sought China’s help in obtaining weapons and nuclear technology. As such, Chinese influence remains high in Pakistan, though I’d question whether it was so direct as shown above.
Very astute map, however.
Comment by karan — June 4, 2007 @ 2:17 pm
where did you find this map?
would be good to know
Comment by C — June 4, 2007 @ 6:15 pm
@ C:
I downloaded this map ages ago, and am afraid I don’t recall whence it came.
@ rek:
there isn’t a second map, but there is a second set of lines (dotted).
@ Peter:
Maybe the maker of this map supposed the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan to be under Pakistani/Chinese control because of cultural proximity to the Pashtuns in Pakistan.
@ anony.mouse:
If you can’t tell whether it’s pro- or anti-Chinese, then it must be a good map. I will look into this Shanghai Organisation, thanks.
Comment by strangemaps — June 4, 2007 @ 7:37 pm
Plus China already has a heavy influence in Sudan and other African countries. Oh. And at Longbridge WM
Comment by lordhutton — June 4, 2007 @ 7:46 pm
One thing I notice is a light line around Iran and Iraq. Wonder if that was supposed to show a lower level of influence.
And as for Tibet, I know of few maps around that have shown Tibet as an independent nation, and those are old. I even remember an encyclopedia entry that had the wrong Chinese provence highlighted at Tibet. I also highly doubt that anyone (even India) will be able to remove China’s hands from Tibet. Showing Tibet as part of China is more Realism than acquiescence to evil.
Comment by Don Hargraves — June 5, 2007 @ 3:36 am
Pakistan and China are a lot closer together than most people realise. They both dislike/distrust China, they both had issues with the USSR. China and Pakistan have worked together on projects such as the KKH (Karakoram Highway) which gives Western provinces in China a route to the sea some 3000 km shorter than through China. The interesting thing about the potential extension is that China has officially said that all that used to be China still is considered to be China. This is firstly aimed at Taiwan, but if you look at the furtherest southern reaches of Chinese empires in the past, that is pretty much the dotted lines on that map (less parts of Indonesia).
Comment by DancingFool — June 5, 2007 @ 7:15 am
DancingFool, I think you mean “[Pakistan and China] both dislike/distrust India.” Just to make sure.
Comment by Evan — June 5, 2007 @ 1:27 pm
Um. It’s pretty clearly anti-Chinese.
One possible source for this map is a 1952 map from a Chinese history book, which showed Manchu China dominating Asia. I posted about it recently here:
http://www.bookcase.com/~claudia/mt/archives/001071.html
and then
http://www.bookcase.com/~claudia/mt/archives/001076.html
But seriously — this is about as plausible as a map showing the US conquering Canada, Mexico, Guatemala and Cuba. It might be interesting if there was a source attached, but as it is, well… yeah, kinda silly. No offense.
Doug M.
Comment by Doug M. — June 5, 2007 @ 7:53 pm
This map isn’t either pro or anti-chinese. If you look at what the text says these are areas of influence not controlled territories. A map showing America’s influence over the rest of the Americas would look very similar in some regards though not as contiguous.
The odd and optomistic thing here is the connection with Taiwan. Since the Taiwanese goverment still wants China to recognize it as an independant nation and China still thinks of it as a wayward province. Though it’s doubtful that China will invade Taiwan in the next 5-10 yrs.
Comment by David Schwartz — June 5, 2007 @ 9:39 pm
The Chinese Are Coming!
There’s an interesting map speculating about China’s future sphere of influence at this cool map blog. It unfortunately lacks citation and any explanation or context. Why is Uzbekistan in China’s orbit but not Turkmenistan? Anyway, food for thought,…
Trackback by Istanbul - Beijing: Josh's travelogue through the underside of the former USSR — June 6, 2007 @ 6:52 am
Um. “Greater China” doesn’t suggest an anti-Chinese agenda to you?
Further: this map is stupid. No offense to strangemaps. But this was sketched up by someone who doesn’t know much about East Asia.
Example: it has Vietnam in China’s “inner” sphere. But Vietnam veers between being actively hostile to China and being coolly distant. There’s a lot of trade, yes, but politically they don’t like each other at all. That’s because Vietnamese nationalism has been anti-Chinese since the 12th century. The two countries fought a war in 1977, there have been a number of minor “incidents” since then, and the border is still heavily militarized on both sides.
At the same time, they’ve got a “potential power conflict” with Malaysia. WTF?
Indonesia. Indonesia has a complicated love-hate relationship with China, but most days it’s more hate than love. Google a bit about Indonesia’s treatment of its Chinese minority to see why. Certainly Indonesia has no interest in being part of a Chinese sphere — they see themselves as a regional power in their own right.
Meanwhile the map saws off a chunk of Siberia and the Maritimes. Again, WTF? That’s Russia, and while there’s a lot of trade, Chinese influence is pretty muted — the Russians are still fairly paranoid about Chinese direct investment, for instance, and that’s not going to change in a hurry.
And Sakhalin? HELLO PEOPLE, Sakhalin is the site of Russia’s most promising oil and gas fields. They’ll be happy to sell that oil to China, sure. But allowing any sort of Chinese influence in Sakhalin? That’s about as likely as the US letting the Chinese run Alaska’s North Slope. Not Going To Happen.
In fact, China’s relations with many of its neighbors are not so great. That’s why they’re looking for influence further abroad, in places like Eastern Europe and Africa. It’s much easier for them to get a trade treaty in Romania or Tanzania than in Vietnam or Japan.
I said earlier this might be based on the old 1952 map. Upon consideration, I doubt it… it looks like something whipped up by someone who didn’t know a lot about the region, but wanted to whip up a scaaaary map showing China getting bigger and /bigger/.
Again, no offense to strangemaps; it’s a strange map, sure enough.
Doug M.
Comment by Doug M. — June 6, 2007 @ 2:43 pm
I think the map might be from Zbigniew Brezinkski’s book The Grand Chessboard.
Comment by washingtonydc — June 12, 2007 @ 5:31 pm
washingtonydc: You are correct. I finished up that book a few months ago and recognized this map immediately.
Comment by rdc — June 13, 2007 @ 4:09 pm
This map is ridiculous, even if you are talking about influence and not outright control.
First of all, the idea that all the former Soviet Central Asian republics, most of which are still disproportionately dominated by ethnic Russians, would end up in China’s sphere rather than Russians is pretty far out. In particular Kazakhstan (the largest, most economically vital one) is essentially a Russian outpost.
Secondly, this map completely ignores the fact that most of maritime SE Asia has historically belonged to India’s sphere of influence, not China’s. Even before India unified, smaller groups within the country (such as the Tamils) were culturally and economically colonizing Burma, Java, et al. The only parts that would realistically fall into China’s sphere would be Northern Vietnam and Laos.
Comment by Tom — July 4, 2007 @ 10:13 pm
tramadol
Comment by Victor — July 7, 2007 @ 5:13 am
cartoon animal
Hello!
Trackback by cartoon animal — July 20, 2007 @ 3:24 am
Interesting idea, but as has been pointed out there is a LOT wrong with this map. Am guessing it was developed by a GEOGRAPHER as opposed to someone familiar with history, economics or political science.
Even with caveats appears to date back to the Cold War period.
Few points NOT mentioned already:
1. Vietnam in the Chinese orbit – don’t think that one washes; first thing Viets did after kicking US out of the south was give Chinese a bloody nose!
2. TODAY perhaps the most important area of expanding Chinese influence (besides WalMart and your shopping mall) is AFRICA.
Comment by Sea Shanty Irish — July 31, 2007 @ 3:21 am
Heavy Porn Punch
Heavy Porn Punch
Trackback by Heavy Porn Punch — August 5, 2007 @ 11:51 pm
The map also kind of ignores Africa. where China is pushing hardest in its global quest for resources and influence. I think that a contiguous geopolitical empire in the Roman sense does not really describe today’s hyperpowers and wannabe hyperpowers. The US today and China in the future aren’t be limited by contiguous landmasses. China’s going to be a lot more concerned about developments in Kenya or even in the Brazilian Amazon, where its corporations and its government are investing heavily, than it is in Myanmar or Pakistan, which are increasingly diplomatic dry holes for it.
Comment by John — September 22, 2007 @ 12:04 am
Super!
It’s fine.
Its the second time.
Comment by Aqua — October 4, 2007 @ 1:36 pm
Lots of people in Pakistan study in China and a surprsing number of the Communist Party’s leadership speaks at least a smattering of Urdu, this is a left over from the days that Pakistan was China’s only ally in the “Free World”. I think hearing Zhu Rongji and his wife talking about how much they love “Loti” (Roti=bread) has to be one of the highlights of my life.
Comment by Ali Hassan — December 11, 2007 @ 5:57 am
hmmmm…very interesting!
Thanks google
Comment by twency — January 17, 2008 @ 4:48 pm
SOG knives…
Interesting ideas… I wonder how the Hollywood media would portray this?…
Trackback by SOG knives — July 17, 2008 @ 11:19 pm
good imagination
Comment by bob — February 5, 2009 @ 7:45 am
[...] the same site (see China as a World Power: How Big?), comes this map, showing China’s potential sphere of influence in the [...]
Pingback by Chimerica or Greater China? : Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose — April 3, 2009 @ 3:42 am
[...] the same site (see China as a World Power: How Big?), comes this map, showing China’s potential sphere of influence in the [...]
Pingback by Current » Chimerica or Greater China? — April 3, 2009 @ 3:47 am
thanks alot
Comment by Tony — May 4, 2009 @ 2:47 am
SjXt0g comment4 ,
Comment by Gyyegeku — May 8, 2009 @ 10:50 am
thanks for this map..
good
luck
Comment by Solomon — May 11, 2009 @ 7:39 am
merci
Comment by aspicco . — May 17, 2009 @ 5:24 am
A lot of issues here I think. Power does not have to be geographically contiguous anymore. Look at American power. China’s sphere of influence will include much of Africa, Sri Lanka where its constructing a base, and possibly places in South America. Close by places like Vietnam, Thailand and quite possibly Pakistan if its current regime falls (which seems almost likly) may not be in its sphere of influence at all.
Comment by moreme — May 18, 2009 @ 10:49 pm
teşekkür ederim
Comment by yory — June 12, 2009 @ 9:36 pm
Vielen Dank
Comment by moon — July 3, 2009 @ 4:15 am